One of the greatest challenges to the pervasive implementation of predictive analytics is the persistence that we as humans know, that we don’t know until after the event when evidence can support our assumptions. And even then the facts can be disputed. This is paralyzing business.
A pertinent article recently featured in Wired magazine touts the survival rates for certain cancers as nearly 90% when detected early, far greater than the 10-20% when the cancer is discovered in a more advanced stage. It discusses the combination of statistical approaches to biomarker discovery with traditional and emerging imaging techniques to uncover microscopic clues that a cancer may be present well before the caustic treatments of radiation therapy, chemotherapy and surgery are required. This immediately strikes a chord and very quickly re-paths my thinking about stopping cancer which affects nearly all of us directly or indirectly. “More than a third of all Americans—some 120 million people—will be diagnosed with cancer sometime in their lives.”
Early detection isn’t about knowing. It’s about predicting, with a certain level of probability, and understanding that even the best oncologist can’t see patterns in cancerous tumors that may be detected with advanced blood tests. Discovering patterns in business data which may predict a valuable opportunity is no different; our business acumen and gut can’t help us see trends hidden deep inside our corporate data.
The article sums up some of the psychological challenges we face when gaining comfort with the notion of early detection — of cancer or business opportunity.
“At first, [early detection] makes things more complicated. It introduces more doubt and complexity into an already complicated equation. But in return, early detection promises that this doubt can be quantified, that these new variables can be broken down into metrics, analyzed, and factored into our health decisions. Early detection proposes that the result of this calculation — complicated and ambiguous as it is — will yield better results for individuals and for their families. In exchange for a modicum of doubt, it offers a maximum opportunity for hope.”
If early detection has the ability to reshape the research to eradicate one of the greatest killers of our time with the ultimate bearing on life and death, understanding the factors which help us maximize or minimize our business outcomes seems like a necessity. We may not know the answer ahead of time, but these clues will help end the analysis paralysis so often experienced in corporate meetings and provide an edge to the businesses that employ advanced analytics.
